Softwood lumber production in Austria and Germany from 2000 to 2023 © Timber-Online.net
The market situation is still characterized by two developments:
- Curtailment of cutting due to weak demand
- Accumulation of damaged wood due to many smaller thunderstorms and bigger bark beetle populations
For Germany and Austria, a curtailment of 20% is expected for this year. In Germany, this would bring production back to the level recorded in 2009. In Austria, a similar output was last recorded in 2009 as well (8.5 million m³). Before that year, the sawmills produced a similarly volume in 1997 and 1998 (see chart).
Differences in supply
At the moment, there is a considerable difference in the supply situation in southern Germany and Austria. Purchase possibilities vary depending on the distance to the damaged wood hotspots. In Austria, there is a clear north-south price gap. Most of the sawlogs cost €90 to €96/m³. In the main damage hotspots, the price level is about €10/m³ lower. In August, the Austrian log price remained more or less unchanged compared to July.
In Bavaria, the price level is higher in Upper Bavaria and lower in Lower Bavaria. Most of the log wood is sold for €86 to €93/m³. The damp weather has helped contain the beetle population somewhat. However, there have been several thunderstorms, which resulted in unplanned logging.
At a local level, there is a slightly bigger volume of damaged wood in the Black Forest. With domestic sales remaining below average, shipments to China are slightly picking up again.
Fewer bark beetles, ergo reduced exports
Log imports from the Czech Republic to southern Germany and Austria have continued to decrease lately. Smaller volumes of beetle-damaged wood and hardly any storm damage resulted in a reduced harvest volume in the Czech Republic. Price expectations of Czech forest owners are now well above the price level in Central Europe.
Beetle-damaged wood for US exports as well
In Germany and Austria, purely beetle-damaged wood is available for €50 to €65/m³. With the addition of beetle-damaged wood to the mix, the US market can be supplied again. Prices there have leveled off. At the moment, nobody is talking about a market hype in the US, however, the overseas market is certainly a welcome “valve”, which should not close before the end of this year.
Three-digit prices expected
Most forest owners expect log prices to hit the three digits again once the damaged wood has been removed and processed. If the harvest of fresh log wood is stopped wittingly or unwittingly, log wood could become scarce at a local level.
