global

Stabilized global market

Canadian suppliers export a lot, almost too much, to the US; Europeans with losses

Article by Gerd Ebner (translated by Eva Guzely) | 25.09.2024 - 11:19

In the first half of 2024, global softwood lumber trade has stabilized. The 15 biggest producing countries exported 54.6 million m³ (+1%). Europe, however, was not the main driver of this stabilization. On the contrary: The three biggest sawmill countries recorded losses at a global level.

Sweden recorded an 8% decrease, while Germany’s exports were down by 6% and those of Finland by 10%. With +36%, Romania achieved the biggest relative increase, but nevertheless remains in 15th place among the top exporting countries.

Canadians oversaturate the US market

Canada, the largest producing country, increased its exports by 3% to a total of 16.4 million m³, of which 14.6 million m³ were delivered to the US. Year on year, this corresponds to an increase of around 500,000 m³. Experts estimate that this increase oversaturated the US market, thereby keeping market prices at a low level.

Russian exports growing again

Official foreign trade statistics do not exist, but the Holzkurier’s editorial team regularly accesses Russian news portals. According to these sources, Russia’s exports grew by 4%, from 9.5 million m³ last year to 9.9 million m³ this year. Softwood lumber production is estimated to have increased by 2% in the first half of 2024.

Decrease in Swedish exports

Sweden’s exports decreased by almost 600,000 m³ or 8%. Deliveries to its main market, Great Britain, showed a negative trend as well, although the 1.4 million m³ exported still represent the third largest trade flow in the world. In the first quarter, this place was still held by the bilateral flow of goods from Austria to Italy, which is currently “only” in fourth place with 1.35 million m³.

Germany and Finland still in the Top 5

Fourth and fifth place of the biggest exporting countries remain unchanged: Germany (4.7 million m³; -6%) and Finland (3.9 million m³; -10%). In Germany, the decrease in shipments to the US stood out in particular, although the volume is in line with the average of the past four years despite this decrease. Finland was at least able to increase its exports to Egypt by 8% to 514,000 m³.

Belarus with an increase in exports

Our editorial team calculated Belarussian exports based on import statistics of other countries, and found a significant increase of 17%. China in particular imported increasing volumes from the country.

According to the Holzkurier’s survey, the Top 15 exporting countries include two North American and nine European countries as well as Russia, the two South American countries Brazil and Chile, and New Zealand.

Global foreign trade | H1 2024
Countries	Total 1-6 2024	Diff. 1-6 2023/2024	Diff. in %	USA	China	Great Britain	Japan	Italy	Egypt	Germany	Netherlands	Mexico	France	Uzbekistan	Austria	Saudi Arabia	South Korea	Belgium	Other countries	MENA region
Table of softwood lumber trade flows from the 15 biggest exporting countries to the 15 biggest importing countries as well as to the MENA region (volumes in 1,000 m³). National statistics on lumber exports were used as sources (as of September 2024).
Horizontal: 15 biggest importing countries / Vertical: 15 biggest exporting countries
Canada	16,391	477	3	14,571	696	10	545	1	6	45	8	32	2	0	0	18	23	12	423	55
Russia	9,900	400	4	1	5,756	0	264	0	290	0	0	n/s	0	730	0	n/s	173	0	n/s	920
Sweden	6,903	–592	–8	556	147	1,408	439	32	643	415	558	0	209	0	26	142	60	151	2,115	1,260
Germany	4,713	–308	–6	1,069	204	206	93	283	23	–	369	10	388	0.5	420	47	61	324	1,215	245
Finland	3,944	–423	–10	41	263	344	384	93	474	222	134	1	224	0	82	185	9	61	1,428	1,126
Austria	2,951	183	7	59	19	29	108	1,352	3	374	10	0	47	0	–	101	19	2	828	468
USA	1,590	71	5	–	60	6	43	5	9	3	5	562	4	0	0	1	7	2	883	23
Latvia	1,489	280	23	76	18	465	42	9	72	45	69	0	47	0	7	2	60	22	554	97
Brazil	1,403	–108	–7	469	132	0.1	0	0	1	0.4	0.3	394	3	0	0	57	2	0.1	344	142
Belarus	1,149	169	17	0	620	0	0	0	n/s	0	0	n/s	0	160	0	n/s	2	0	367	n/s
Chile	1,119	–56	–5	70	153	03	105	0.4	0	0	1	148	0	0	0	66	150	0	426	141
Czech Republic	896	–14	–2	37	13	18	58	83	0	224	6	0	6	0	192	2	12	3	243	6
Ukraine	833	–30	–4	0	0,2	1	3	70	0	54	26	0	1	0	2	1	1	27	647	15
New Zealand	690	67	11	99	86	1	20	0	0	0.2	17	3	0	0	0	23	69	1	370	38
Romania	628	168	36	44	22	2	95	20	4	44	2	0.1	1	0	15	68	4	1	306	270
Total	54,600	284	1	17,092	8,190	2,489	2,199	1,948	1,526	1,427	1,204	1,151	932	891	745	712	651	606	10,151	4,805

Product groups: 440711, 440712, 440713, 440714, 440719. Sources/Exporters: AT: Statistik Austria; BR: Comex Stat – MDIC; CA: Statistics Canada; CZ: Czech Statistical Office; CL: Ministry of Agriculture (Minagri – Chile); DE: Destatis; FI: Finnish Customs; LV: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia; NZ: Statistics New Zealand; RO: Eurostat; SE: Statistics Sweden; UA: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine; US: United States Department of Agriculture. Notes: Russia, Belarus: Volumes in the table refer to data reported by the respective importing country. Sources: CN: China Customs; JP: Statistics of Japan; KR: Korea Customs Service; UZ: Holzkurier estimate based on data by UN Comtrade for the period January-March 2024. Russian exports to Egypt, the MENA region and total volume: Holzkurier estimate based on data by Roslesinforg. Belarus: “Other countries” refers to Azerbaijan (270,000 m³ in H1 2024 acc. to UN Comtrade), Turkey (54,000 m³ acc. to Turkish Statistical Institute) as well as Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (43,000 m³ acc. to UN Comtrade). For the same period of last year, the same markets were taken into account. Total import volumes of Egypt, MENA region without volumes from Belarus, Saudi Arabia without volumes from Russia and Belarus | © www.holzkurier.com