Once again, the Holzkurier surveyed over 20 statistical offices worldwide to determine the following three key trends on the global markets:
- In terms of volume, global trade decreased by around 7%.
- The 20 biggest trade flows shrank by 4% in volume and decreased by 32% in value.
- Of the major exporting nations, only Sweden was able to slightly increase its exports.
Global market weak in 2023
Europe in particular needs global trade. One in three cubic meters produced here is sold outside the EU. Smaller export volumes increase market pressure within the EU, and lower export prices indirectly reduce prices on domestic markets as well. That is exactly what happened in 2023.
Europe’s biggest overseas market is the MENA region which imports more than 8 million m³ of softwood lumber. In 2023, slight gains were made there in 2023. Individual supplying countries such as Austria or the Baltic states were able to substantially increase their shipments (a detailed analysis will follow).
The largest single market in the world is the USA. Last year was characterized by a weakening demand for imports, which resulted in a 7% decrease and a total import volume of only 33.2 million m³. It was the smallest volume since 2015.
US-$260 instead of US-$390 on the US market
The US not only needed smaller volumes of softwood lumber last year, there was also less money to be made on the market. The value of imports fell significantly. Canada, for example, saw its revenue from softwood lumber exports to its neighbor (28 million m³; -7%) decrease by 38%, from around US-$390/m³ to only US-$260/m³ in 2023.
China nearly 5 million m³ below pre-Covid levels
In 2023, there was no real upswing on the Chinese market either. Even though the country’s imports increased by 4% year on year to a total of 17.4 million m³, this volume is well below the levels recorded in the pre-Covid years, when imports amounted to around 23 million m³.
In our research, we found that Russia was able to keep its softwood lumber exports to China constant. Nevertheless, the value of the world’s second biggest trade flow fell by 12%. Last year, Russia only earned an average of US-$197/m³ – compared to US-$225/m³ in 2022. With a total of 11.8 million m³, Russian deliveries accounted for almost 70% of China’s imports.
Of the Top 20 trade flows, the one from Russia to Uzbekistan takes the title of the cheapest lumber price (US-$155/m³). By contrast, the most lucrative softwood lumber trade flow is the one from Canada to Japan. In purely mathematical terms, US-$450 can be earned there with an average range.
Austria–Italy the no. 4 trade flow
In line with the decrease in Italian imports, Austrian deliveries, too, fell by 10%. As a result, the bilateral trade between the two countries (2.5 million m³) is now only the fourth biggest global trade flow, while softwood lumber exports from Sweden to Great Britain (2.7 million m³) are the new number three.
Around one quarter of Germany’s softwood lumber exports are headed across the Atlantic. In 2023, however, there was a significant slump in the US market, with sales decreasing by 12%, from 2.8 million m³ in 2022 to just under 2.5 million m³. This makes it the fifth largest trade flow in the world.
The Scandinavian countries performed above average last year. Sweden was the only Top 10 nation to increase its exports, while Finland maintained its export volume.
Sweden: big export volumes at a low price
With almost 14 million m³, Sweden recorded an export volume that had only been seen once before (2020). However, this success was partly achieved through significantly lower prices. Revenue from lumber sales to Great Britain fell by 18%. Double-digit decreases were also recorded in revenue generated in Egypt (-20%), the US (-41%) and the Netherlands (-22%).
| Table of softwood lumber trade flows from the 15 biggest exporting countries to the 15 biggest importing countries as well as to the MENA region (volumes in 1,000 m³). National statistics on lumber exports were used as sources (as of March 2024). |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| Horizontal: 15 biggest importing countries | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9. | 10. | 11. | 12. | 13. | 14. | 15. | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical: 15 biggest exporting countries | Total | Diff. 2022/2023 | Diff. in % | USA | China | Great Britain | Italy | Japan | Germany | Egypt | Uzbekistan | Netherlands | France | Mexico | South Korea | Austria | Saudi Arabia | Belgium | Other countries | MENA region | |
| 1. | Canada | 31,507 | –2,070 | –6 | 28,069 | 1,500 | 17 | 4 | 910 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 73 | 33 | 0.1 | 27 | 22 | 800 | 77 |
| 2. | Russia | 20,700 | –2,300 | –10 | 6 | 11,895 | 0 | 0 | 467 | 0 | n/s | 2,030 | 0 | 0 | n/s | 455 | 0 | n/s | 0 | n/s | n/s |
| 3. | Sweden | 13,945 | 296 | 2 | 1,145 | 716 | 2,680 | 60 | 643 | 762 | 1,354 | 0 | 1,055 | 436 | 0 | 147 | 59 | 251 | 272 | 4,363 | 2,819 |
| 4. | Germany | 9,665 | –1,114 | –10 | 2,464 | 590 | 416 | 567 | 94 | – | 18 | 0 | 649 | 788 | 11 | 130 | 787 | 94 | 602 | 2,456 | 492 |
| 5. | Finland | 8,339 | –228 | –3 | 85 | 800 | 707 | 184 | 618 | 437 | 1,107 | 0 | 272 | 476 | 4 | 21 | 150 | 382 | 135 | 2,959 | 2,620 |
| 6. | Austria | 5,268 | –479 | –8 | 136 | 48 | 46 | 2,483 | 149 | 721 | 3 | 0.1 | 5 | 92 | 1 | 29 | – | 144 | 3 | 1,410 | 814 |
| 7. | USA | 2,978 | –46 | –2 | – | 126 | 11 | 8 | 83 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 1,091 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1,590 | 50 |
| 8. | Chile | 2,431 | –50 | –2 | 146 | 318 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 294 | 384 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 941 | 287 |
| 9. | Latvia | 2,411 | –490 | –17 | 88 | 53 | 864 | 20 | 76 | 201 | 84 | 0 | 136 | 74 | 0 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 27 | 675 | 147 |
| 10. | Brazil | 2,282 | –260 | –10 | 758 | 205 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 565 | 7 | 0 | 155 | 0.1 | 586 | 327 |
| 11. | Belarus | 1,947 | –33 | –2 | 0 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | n/s | 370 | 0 | 0 | n/s | 2 | 0 | n/s | 0 | 675 | n/s |
| 12. | Czech Republic | 1,770 | –569 | –24 | 76 | 19 | 34 | 243 | 57 | 398 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 307 | 3 | 6 | 590 | 24 |
| 14. | Ukraine | 1,711 | 81 | 5 | 2 | 50 | n/s | 122 | 9 | 111 | n/s | 0 | 57 | 2 | n/s | 5 | 6 | n/s | 41 | 1,305 | n/s |
| 13. | New Zealand | 1,344 | –53 | –4 | 205 | 210 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 654 | 59 |
| 15. | Belgium | 987 | –549 | –36 | 26 | 42 | 40 | 0.5 | 0 | 201 | 7 | 0 | 117 | 401 | 0 | 3 | 0.2 | 0 | – | 150 | 84 |
| Total | 107,286 | –7,864 | –7 | 33,205 | 17,473 | 4,819 | 3,691 | 3,333 | 2,878 | 2,606 | 2,400 | 2,378 | 2,292 | 2,042 | 1,492 | 1,323 | 1,246 | 1,111 | 19,153 | 7,799 | |
| Trade flows incl. planed timber in 1,000 m³ and US-$1,000 |
||||||||
| N. | Exporter | Importer | Jan – Dec in 1,000 m³ | Diff. in % | Jan – Dec in US-$1,000 | Diff. in % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |||||
| 1 | Canada | USA | 30,086 | 28,069 | –7 | 11,795,949 | 7,286,878 | –38 |
| 2 | Russia | China | 11,894 | 11,895 | 0 | 2,674,120 | 2,343,768 | –12 |
| 3 | Sweden | Great Britain | 2,399 | 2,680 | 12 | 933,008 | 769,594 | –18 |
| 4 | Austria | Italy | 2,753 | 2,483 | –10 | 878,605 | 640,375 | –27 |
| 5 | Germany | USA | 2,790 | 2,464 | –12 | 1,091,073 | 689,586 | –37 |
| 6 | Russia | Uzbekistan | 2,121 | 2,030 | –4 | 404,103 | 315,000 | –22 |
| 7 | Canada | China | 1,257 | 1,500 | 19 | 303,137 | 274,498 | –9 |
| 8 | Sweden | Egypt | 1,327 | 1,354 | 2 | 282,301 | 224,477 | –20 |
| 9 | Sweden | USA | 1,414 | 1,145 | –19 | 563,273 | 331,706 | –41 |
| 10 | Finland | Egypt | 1,240 | 1,107 | –11 | 254,392 | 173,104 | –32 |
| 11 | USA | Mexico | 1,006 | 1,091 | 8 | 297,482 | 265,343 | –11 |
| 12 | Sweden | Netherlands | 1,000 | 1,055 | 6 | 374,329 | 290,914 | –22 |
| 13 | Canada | Japan | 1,102 | 910 | –17 | 821,893 | 413,190 | –50 |
| 14 | Belarus | China | 625 | 900 | 44 | 137,966 | 162,059 | 17 |
| 15 | Latvia | Great Britain | 1,134 | 864 | –24 | 468,601 | 276,089 | –41 |
| 16 | Finland | China | 931 | 800 | –14 | 204,506 | 148,359 | –27 |
| 17 | Germany | France | 826 | 788 | –5 | 319,468 | 245,261 | –23 |
| 18 | Germany | Austria | 907 | 787 | –13 | 301,908 | 212,225 | –30 |
| 19 | Sweden | Denmark | 760 | 784 | 3 | 278,561 | 207,471 | –26 |
| 20 | Sweden | Germany | 747 | 762 | 2 | 268,812 | 208,590 | –22 |
