green: harvested, red: not removed
This chart is based on several key figures analyzed by Czech Forest. In addition to trends, geographic peculiarities were taken into account, i.e. spruce stocks at individual altitudes and regions, the current extent of the infestation, the temporal distribution of the bark beetle disaster in the Vysocina region, capacity and processing possibilities. The chart is not the result of a mathematical-statistical algorithm, but of a professional discussion of the members of the Czech Forest think tank about the available data. There are many factors which can have a positive and negative influence on future developments. The diagram is published acknowledging this.
© holzkurier.com
The pace of bark beetle infestation should continue in 2021, unless there are extreme weather conditions which are unfavorable for bark beetles and favorable for trees. With a doubling of infested trees in 2021, the volume of damaged wood would reach 80 to 120 million m³ already.
According to Czech Forest, 450 million m³ of spruce are at risk in the country.
After 2021, a decrease in infestation is to be expected which is mostly due to a general reduction of spruce stock. Czech Forest expects that a gradual shift of the calamity towards higher altitudes is likely which is also going to slow the spread of the parasites.
In general, the risk of a spread of bark beetle infestation remains in most spruce forests. This means that half of the Czech Republic’s growing stock and forest area are affected.
