The current raw material and production costs make further price reductions impossible and the market would have to see a significant upswing for a sustained price increase. In this general context, the Holzkurier identified a solid structural timber price of €290/m³ in October – and thus a decrease of €20/m³ compared to the same period of last year. In addition to a possible increase in raw material prices, the so-called “Third Amendment to Road Toll Regulations” for trucks, which will include an additional partial rate for CO2 emissions related to road transport as of December 1, 2023, also points to a moderate price increase. Freight forwarders will probably pass these additional costs on, which will lead to higher costs per cubic meter, depending on the destination.
The sector is primarily concerned about the sharp decrease in the number of issued building permits and housing construction starts. Manufacturers of prefabricated houses as well as their suppliers will clearly feel this in 2024. An industry expert estimated that prefabricated house manufacturers’ demand for solid structural timber could be up to a third lower in 2024 than it has been this year.
Market participants see great potential in modular timber constructions. With the announced production sites, demand for solid structural timber in this area is expected to see strong growth in the coming years.
