Lumber prices have stabilized somewhat in May. The Italian sideboard price fell slightly at the start of the second quarter (-€2/m³ for fresh 17-mm chipped sideboards), German packaging products, on the other hand, have been much more stable so far this year.
As the Holzkurier found out in its surveys, the prices of the main products rose slightly in April, to be precise by €3/m³ for rough planed timber in Italy, and by €1/m³ for visible-quality laminations for glulam in Germany. At +10%, the lamination price is significantly higher than it was last year.
Weak US market negatively impacts price of raw wood for KVH
The weak US market and the few sales markets for solid structural timber keep putting pressure on the price of the raw wood. With this product in particular, one has to wonder how manufacturers can make any money given the known log prices and the current sales prices. Double-digit percentage decreases in demand for solid structural timber are not unlikely this year because in contrast to other glued timber products, there are no real sales markets for solid structural timber outside of the DACH region. Therefore, it remains to be seen how the prices for the raw wood and the end product will develop during the second half of the year. Everything seems possible: a price range of €250 to €260/m³ or prices starting at €200/m³.
So, if the US market is so important, what is going to happen there next? For a US market expert, the recent price weakness (-US-$44/1,000 bft in week 16) was unexpected. Nevertheless, he cannot imagine that prices will fall any further. “The situation won’t improve significantly before the third quarter, though,” he analyzes, dashing hopes for a near-term recovery.
MENA going good and increasingly interesting as export market
This disillusionment with the development of the US market has an effect on other overseas markets. In the Middle East, prices have been rising lately. However, if volumes which were originally intended for the US market are redirected to these more lucrative markets, a sideways trend could also set in there. In Japan, sales of certain products are said to be going rather okay at the moment. Orders are expected to pick up at the beginning of the third quarter and new prices will likely be set then.
As for glulam prices, there was little change month on month (+€4/m³ in Italy; -€2/m³ in Germany). In this segment, the necessary production adjustments were already made last year.
