Iran crisis causes chaos

This affects a market that purchased a total of nearly 4 million m³ of softwood lumber last year. The situation not only affects countries around the Persian Gulf. The higher risk also has an indirect impact on almost the entire Middle East. In the Mediterranean, there are no freight problems yet, apart from much higher fuel costs.

According to the Holzkurier’s analysis of preliminary foreign trade data, the MENA region imported approximately 9.6 million m³ of softwood lumber in 2025 (see tables below). Countries east of Egypt, including Sudan, received around 42%, or approximately 4.1 million m³, of this volume.

Russia supplies Iran

Due to a lack of available Russian foreign trade data, all volumes mentioned here are excluding Russia. However, the Holzkurier’s editorial team projects that Russian exports to the MENA region totaled around 1.7 million m³ in 2025. Egypt is the number-one market for Russian lumber, with a volume of 550,000 m³. At the same time, Russia is Iran’s most important supplier. Last year, around 500,000 m³ reportedly have been exported from Russia to Iran, likely making Russia the country’s only significant supplier in 2025.

Europe shipped 3.2 million m³ to the region

Last year, the EU-27 exported around 5.5 million m³ of softwood lumber to North Africa, 3.2 million m³ of which were shipped to the countries now affected by the Iran crisis. With around 900,000 m³, Finland is the region’s most important European supplier (import market share: 22%). Romania shipped almost 630,000 m³ (15%) there in 2025, and was followed by Austria with 553,000 m³ (14%) and Brazil with 530,000 m³ (13%). Sweden exported around 380,000 m³ (9%), and Germany shipped 213,000 m³ (5%) to countries east and south of Egypt.

The Gulf region primarily purchases freshly cut lumber from small-diameter logs and 3-m grades from Central Europe. Scandinavia mainly exports various grades of dry pine lumber. Damaged wood from the storm that hit Sweden in January would be particularly well-suited for this region.

Now, however, both Central Europe and Scandinavia are faced with the problem that those types of lumber can be sold on alternative markets only to a limited extent. Neither dimensions nor qualities are easily interchangeable. Raw lumber for solid structural timber or typical North African grades are not considered suitable substitutes. 

North Africa instead of the Gulf region?

Nevertheless, there are concerns that after Ramadan, the previously stable North African markets – especially Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco – will not be able to purchase additional volumes. Libya could reopen as a market, as payments via letters of credit appear to be possible again. In Algeria, structural problems such as a shortage of foreign currency and a lack of import licenses persist.

Goods from Argentina are also increasingly present in North Africa.

Goods unloaded in random ports

Immediately after bombings began on February 28, the first disruptions occurred, with shipping companies charging high risk surcharges for shipped containers. Some containers were unloaded in ports somewhere between India and South Africa, and are now incurring high storage costs there. Many market participants believe that shipping companies should have unloaded the goods at the nearest ports, not in distant regions. There is also criticism about what is perceived as excessive risk surcharges and demurrage charges at loading ports, as those sometimes clearly exceed the value of the shipped goods.

Transport by truck as temporary alternative

Three weeks after the conflict began, suppliers are reporting a slight easing of the freight situation. Via alternative ports, construction sites in Saudi Arabia can be reached by truck – at higher costs, though. In most Gulf states, projects are continuing as long as the necessary materials are available.

As was the case back in October 2023, when attacks by Houthi rebels disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, ships are already taking the route around Africa – for example, to reach countries bordering the Red Sea.

When it comes to freight forwarders taking back risk charges, there are various reports. One Scandinavian manufacturer, for example, was able to have freight rates reduced to pre-crisis levels after threatening to cancel the shipment.

Shipping companies heavily criticized

The behavior of shipping companies is met with harsh criticism by market participants. Even before the Iran crisis, there were delays in adapting shipping documents, while high demurrage costs were incurred at the same time.

Companies with contracts that include clauses on war risk surcharges are less or not affected at all.