Nevertheless, the Holzkurier’s sales indicator recovered slightly compared to July, rising by 0.4 percentage points to 100.8%.
Smallest volume of damaged wood in nine years
This year, the volume of damaged wood available in Central Europe has reached the lowest level since 2017. The Holzkurier’s editorial team expects a total of 33 million m³ to accumulate in Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria this year. This is roughly half the volume recorded in 2022, and even less than a third of the volume that accumulated in the negative record years of 2019 and 2020.
So far this year, there has not been the usual volume of damaged wood. As a result, more sawmills recently accepted log deliveries in order to start with better-stocked log yards. Nevertheless, most large companies still had “a lot of room” at the end of August.
The majority of the market participants we interviewed still assumes that softwood lumber production will be slowed by reduced log supply in the remaining months of this year. Austrian production output is still around 4% higher than last year but could fall to 2024 levels by late December.
DeSH President: “We are undersupplied and need wood.”
In Germany, the situation is dramatic – as shown by the open letter from DeSH President Dr. Stephan Lang to forest owners in which he talks about an “acute undersupply, leading to production adjustments and short-time work” (see article Open letter: Appeal to forest owners).
The Holzkurier’s survey shows continued increases in log prices. Compared to July, prices for spruce/fir sawlogs have increased by €1.5/m³ in Baden-Württemberg, by €2/m³ in Northern Germany, and by €3/m³ in Austria and Bavaria.
Peak prices where spruce is scarce
In Upper and Lower Austria, log prices are the highest. Those are the states where the large volume of damaged wood that accumulated between 2017 and 2022 reduced the spruce log supply. Furthermore, less and less log wood is imported from the Czech Republic. The Czech price level is currently around €10/m³ higher than the Austrian one. Especially in Upper and Lower Austria, pine is increasingly used as a substitute for spruce.
Tyrolean sawmills reported the largest price jump in August. With month-on-month increases of up to €10/m³, the prices reached Austrian and Upper Bavarian levels.
In mid-August, there was a small local storm on the Laßnitzhöhe in Styria. The damage caused by it provided welcome wood for a nearby large sawmill.
The German sawmill industry has been hit even harder by the reduced volume of damaged wood since 2017. In “de-spruced” regions such as the Sauerland, large sawmills have to substantially curtail cutting or cart up log wood from the south to fill the supply gap.
Undersupply despite record prices?
The sawmill industry is faced with unprecedentedly high log prices. Nevertheless, no one is ruling out the possibility that supply concerns of individual companies could further fuel the upward price trend. “Standing still is more expensive,” is the motto at the moment.
The sawdust prices in Germany and Austria provided some relief in August, while wood chip prices remained at the July level.
