A clear majority is satisfied
At the turn of the year, only 50% of sawmills expected a satisfactory business situation in the first quarter. Now, 60% gave this assessment for the second quarter.
Confidence in the business situation corresponds very well with expectations for lumber prices. 60% expect prices to rise in the next three months. One year ago, only 36% could imagine this.
Meanwhile, 35% think that lumber prices will remain constant, and only 5% anticipated falling lumber prices in the most recent survey.
Stabilization of log prices
Exactly one in two survey participants now forecasts constant log prices for the next six months. 39% anticipate rising prices, while 11% expect decreases.
As for sales, 62% of sawmillers are satisfied with how the situation has developed so far in 2025, describing it as normal. Almost half of the respondents (48%) expect the situation to remain unchanged. 36%, on the other hand, are confident their sales will increase further, whereas 16% anticipate declining sales.
Normal stock levels
64% of the surveyed sawmills report normal stock levels at the moment. 23% of the companies will start the next quarter with high and 13% with low inventory levels.
Currently, almost a third now expect their company’s inventory levels to decrease. In contrast, only 15% can imagine an increase in the second quarter. 57% expect no changes. With the start of the construction season, inventories of end products likely decrease, an assessment given by almost 30% of survey participants.
This time, we again asked about planned cutting volumes in 2025. 62% of sawmills plan to keep cutting unchanged. 20% want to increase it, and 18% plan to reduce it.
Willingness to invest remains at rock bottom
Even with Ligna around the corner, the sawmill industry’s willingness to invest is still rated as low (84%), and this will not change in the next six months, according to 50% of the participants in the economic survey.
BIGGEST CHALLENGES AT THE MOMENT*
1. Raw material supply and prices
Log wood is difficult to obtain and prices have risen sharply. Especially fluctuating supply and short-term availability of volumes pose a risk.
Alternative types of wood (e.g., pine instead of spruce) are increasingly being used, but prices are also under pressure.
The purchase price for log wood is approaching the achievable selling price for lumber. As a result, margins are shrinking significantly.
2. Energy and transportation costs
Energy prices (especially electricity) and transportation costs are high, making production more expensive.
3. Sales problems and market situation
Weak construction activity in the DACH region leads to lower lumber prices.
Sales markets are stagnating, especially those for lower-quality timber and hardwood.
International competition is distorted by more favorable production conditions in Southern Europe and other regions.
Market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions (e.g., US tariffs).
4. Personnel and shortage of skilled workers
There is a shortage of qualified specialists.
High wages and rising personnel costs place additional strain on businesses.
5. Bureaucracy and regulation
The bureaucratic burden is perceived as massive, especially due to the implementation of the EUDR and the Supply Chain Act, which apply for smaller businesses, too.
Complex documentation requirements and a lack of support from authorities.
The lack of predictability and political uncertainty at the national level is being criticized.
6. Overall economic situation and problems related to location
According to several reports, Austria is losing international competitiveness due to high energy, wage, tax, and duty costs.
Liquidity bottlenecks
The lack of political support for timber construction is being criticized.
7. Specific challenges
Curtailing cutting to control costs.
The unpredictability is making strategic decisions difficult. Demands for better marketing of the industry and an increase in lumber prices.
* Answers to the question: What are the biggest challenges your company is currently faced with and how do you handle them?
