Expectations for hardwood lumber prices are subdued. Only 11% of survey respondents expect prices to rise, while a clear majority (68%) thinks that prices will remain constant in the first quarter of 2024. These assessments are also reflected in expectations regarding sales.
The absence of any significant improvement in lumber prices is a cause for concern for 60% of respondents, who fear a deterioration in their business situation in the first quarter of 2024. 32% expect their business situation to be normal and only 5% think that it will improve. Accordingly, none of the surveyed companies plans to increase cutting in 2024. In fact, 60% of respondents intend to reduce it compared to last year.
An ad hoc survey on a possible market upswing showed that 47% of respondents do not expect an increase in demand for lumber before 2025. 33% predict a potential recovery in the second half of 2024.
As for stock levels, 63% of hardwood processing companies reported high levels in the fourth quarter of 2023, while 39% described them as normal. For the first quarter of 2024, about half of respondents expect stock levels to remain at current levels. Only 21% expect them to decrease.
Due to the high level of participation, we will start publishing not only the economic surveys of softwood sawmills, but also those of hardwood sawmills.
Here, you can read about the latest economic survey among softwood sawmills: Market situation to remain tense
