However, there are several reasons for the decrease in foreign trade activity in 2022. In addition to the repercussions of anti-Covid measures, especially in China, the situation calmed somewhat after at least six years of strong growth. Demand for softwood lumber in Europe fell significantly starting in May and June.
Decrease in global trade in 2022
According to calculations by the Holzkurier, the total global trade volume fell from 127.3 million m³ in 2021 to 115 million m³ last year, i.e. by 12 million m³ or 10% year on year. At this point, it has to be said, though, that the availability of data is limited because of the war in Ukraine.
Three countries with a decrease of 10 million m³
The following three countries recorded the biggest decreases in softwood lumber exports:
- Russia: -5.3 million m³ (-19%)
- Canada: -3.5 million m³ (-9%)
- Belarus: -1.4 million m³ (-44%; availability of data very rudimentary)
Downward trend for Canada
The US is by far the most important importer of softwood lumber in the world. In 2022, the country bought over 36 million m³ from foreign suppliers. Ten years ago, 97% of overall imports came from Canada. Last year, however, the big neighbor “only” accounted for 83% of US imports.
Europeans increasingly present in the US
Contrary to this, shipments from European countries increased, most of all those from Germany. In 2012, Europeans accounted for 1% of US imports. Ten years later, they were already up at 13%. With almost 4.9 million m³, Europe also recorded an unprecedented trade volume in 2022. Year-on-year, shipments across the Atlantic to the US increased by a remarkable 27%, or almost exactly 1 million m³.
Canada will never be able to export substantially more than 30 to 32 million m³ a year. This is due to the declining volume of available log wood in British Columbia. In the long term, Europe could step in and “help out” with quantities. Currently, prices of only €223/m³ for 2-by-4 are too low. However, apart from this mass product, there is lumber in more lucrative dimensions – and European lumber might get a quality bonus.
South American shipments to the US recently stagnated at only around 1 million m³ a year.
Russia remains China’s cheap supplier
The Chinese government’s zero-Covid strategy resulted in much weaker demand in 2022. Russia suffered the most from this strategy, with bilateral trade decreasing by 3.3 million m³. The decrease in purchases is a problem. An even bigger problem is the fact that Russia has lost almost all “lucrative buyer countries”. Since July 2022 at the latest, Russia can no longer export softwood lumber to the high-priced markets of Europe (revenue around US-$320/m³) and Japan/Korea (US-$370/m³) because all of them are either “unfriendly states” or have put Russia on the sanctions list. This leaves only the CIS countries (US-$123/m³), China (US-$174/m³) and the MENA countries (US-$ 260/m³) as buyers. These 2021 prices are from
Germany managed to slightly increase its softwood lumber exports by 2% to 10.7 million m³, thereby consolidating its fourth place among the main global exporting countries. In particular on the overseas markets US (+21%), China (+51%) and India (+78%), Germany is becoming stronger.
Global foreign trade | 2022
| Table of softwood lumber trade flows from the 15 biggest exporting countries to the 15 biggest importing countries as well as to the MENA region (volumes in 1,000 m³). National statistics on lumber exports in 2022 were used as sources (as of March 2023). | |||||||||||||||||||
| HORIZONTAL:15 biggest importing countries | VERTICAL: 15 biggest exporting countries | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Countries | Total | Diff. 2021/2022 | Diff. in % | USA | China | Great Britain | Japan | Italy | Germany | Egypt | Netherlands | France | Uzbekistan | Mexico | Austria | Saudi Arabia | Belgium | South Korea | Other countries |
| Canada | 33,556 | –3,472 | –9 | 30,088 | 1,249 | 33 | 1,095 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 91 | 0 | 18 | 22 | 76 | 856 |
| Russia ¹⁾ | 23,328 | –5,385 | –19 | 47 | 11,894 | 28 | 773 | 30 | 364 | n/s | 162 | 98 | 2,121 | n/s | 10 | n/s | 62 | 469 | n/s |
| Sweden | 13,753 | 1,167 | 9 | 1,414 | 772 | 2,399 | 754 | 68 | 743 | 1,327 | 988 | 368 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 371 | 395 | 132 | 3,988 |
| Germany | 10,731 | 227 | 2 | 2,800 | 759 | 458 | 108 | 535 | – | 5 | 750 | 813 | 0 | 43 | 892 | 136 | 724 | 161 | 2,546 |
| Finland | 8,476 | –208 | –2 | 80 | 929 | 668 | 741 | 175 | 482 | 1,220 | 268 | 436 | 0 | 0.4 | 153 | 493 | 122 | 17 | 2,692 |
| Austria | 5,731 | –249 | –4 | 173 | 47 | 39 | 267 | 2,764 | 892 | 4 | 7 | 88 | 0.1 | 0 | – | 146 | 1 | 33 | 1,269 |
| USA | 3,035 | –297 | –9 | – | 80 | 13 | 134 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1,007 | 0 | 0.1 | 2 | 6 | 1,703 |
| Latvia | 2,840 | –254 | –8 | 192 | 39 | 1,129 | 104 | 34 | 114 | 88 | 162 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 36 | 102 | 733 |
| Brazil | 2,542 | –223 | –8 | 1,004 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 519 | 0 | 183 | 0 | 6 | 654 |
| Chile | 2,481 | –234 | –9 | 206 | 298 | 1 | 216 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 331 | 0 | 139 | 0 | 409 | 878 |
| Czech Republic | 2,338 | 45 | 2 | 78 | 23 | 37 | 85 | 300 | 561 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 516 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 673 |
| Belarus ²⁾ | 1,765 | –1,389 | –44 | 0 | 625 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 118 | n/s | 42 | 2 | 127 | 0 | 1 | n/s | 39 | 0.2 | n/s |
| Ukraine ³⁾ | 1,600 | –1,141 | –42 | 2 | 174 | n/s | 33 | 179 | 124 | n/s | 62 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 11 | n/s | 57 | 9 | n/s |
| Belgium | 1,562 | –663 | –30 | 5 | 114 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 460 | 29 | 200 | 548 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | – | 1 | 162 |
| Romania | 1,253 | –290 | –19 | 342 | 77 | 3 | 101 | 44 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 124 | 2 | 7 | 497 |
| Totale ⁴⁾ | 114,991 | –12,367 | –10 | 36,431 | 17,250 | 4,853 | 4,413 | 4,160 | 3,893 | 2,728 | 2,690 | 2,472 | 2,248 | 1,997 | 1,651 | 1,618 | 1,472 | 1,463 | n/s |
