Despite all uncertainties, the EOS estimates that the industry will have to prepare for a 10% plunge in production in 2020. The risk of a more marked decrease is seen as high. The development of the sawmill byproducts market is not good either.
Sawmill production is slowly returning to a normal level even in countries which have been affected most by the pandemic. All in all, the softwood segment was hit less hard than the hardwood segment. The latter is more exposed due to its main customer, the furniture industry.
On overseas markets, demand and prices fell considerably according to the EOS. However, both the Asian and the US market probably see a more positive development than expected only a few weeks ago.
With regard to the future, there is great uncertainty. In the short term, the construction sector has managed better than many feared in the beginning. Many projects were completed. In the coming months, however, a slowdown of the construction sector seems likely.
In case of a second outbreak of the coronavirus, many sawmills could face a difficult time due to renewed lockdowns and a lasting crisis of the construction sector.
The EOS currently sees the fight against bark beetles as the biggest challenge for the future. In Central Europe in particular, sawmill are again preparing for big quantities of damaged wood. In order to be able to get on top of this crucial issue, the EOS instructed researchers to develop a real-time forest information system whose aim is to provide accurate data. The system was already presented to the European Commission.
