The study is based on two different scenarios. If the more extreme scenario becomes reality, a 48% decrease in EU log wood production is to be expected by 2030, which corresponds to a harvest volume of 282 million m³. In 2017, around 474 million m³ were harvested in the EU. By the middle of this century, logging would fall by 58%. Johannes Schwörer, President of the Main Association of the German Timber Industry (HDH), commented on the study.
One decisive factor, i.e. the harvest of trees whose age is already higher than the usual rotation period, would no longer exist.
The second scenario looks at developments based on the assumption that there are moderate conditions. In this case, log wood production would decrease by 9% by 2030, while an 11% decline is to be expected by 2050.
Repercussions on the timber industry
In case the first scenario becomes reality, the production of lumber and pulp will fall by around 50% in the EU, and the availability of firewood would see an even bigger decrease. Production output of the engineered wood industry would shrink by approximately 30%.
At the same time, the authors of the study expect the consumption of lumber and engineered wood to remain practically unchanged compared to reference scenario.
According to the HDH’s President Schwörer, the result would be an even bigger dependence on non-EU countries, since the shortage of domestic volumes would have to be offset by increasing imports. The latter are problematic, among other things, because sustainable forestry cannot always be guaranteed when it comes to forests outside the EU.
