There are several reasons why prices continue to stagnate:
- A harsh and comparatively long winter slowed construction activity across much of Europe. Since there has not been what used to be a normal winter in such a large area for some time, its impact was often underestimated.
- Easter, which many companies apparently consider the official start of the construction season, takes place early this year – which caused them to wait unusually long.
- Uncertainty is increasing due to international political turmoil.
- Lately, the competitiveness of Central European overseas exports is no longer determined by supply and demand alone, but also by massively increased logistics costs due to geopolitical developments.
- Increased freight rates and disrupted trade routes are an obstacle to sales in established markets such as the Gulf region.
Lumber prices need to rise urgently
This complex situation leads to a slow reduction in inventories at producers and in the market pipeline. Sentiment among processing companies is tense. “We urgently need to raise the prices of all products,” they say. From mid-March onwards, a slight recovery in sales of glulam, CLT, solid structural timber and construction timber was observed. Those who concluded quarterly contracts for the second quarter were often only able to achieve the same prices as before for their main grade products. The weeks after Easter will show whether this is a success or not: Will the situation finally improve, or will sales deteriorate further?
Given the number of permits, Germany should perform better
In Germany, domestic sales are expected to show at least a slight recovery in 2026, since building permits have risen – albeit from a low level – by a double-digit percentage compared to last year. However, this recovery has not yet materialized, as market experts report.
In Italy, sales of wood products were very positive last year, but it is unlikely that they will remain at this level in 2026, too. EU funds from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), which boosted sales in the two previous years, will continue until the accounts are submitted at the end of September.
Who will bear the increased logistics costs?
The Iran crisis is currently causing higher costs, especially in logistics. Every market participant along the supply chain is trying to pass on these increases in order to avoid being stuck with them. In Austria, the insufficient availability of rail wagons continues to hamper day-to-day operations.
Log prices decreased in Austria
Sawmills in Austria are very well supplied – and there is still harvested log wood lying along forest roads. Many large sawmills have had to impose delivery restrictions. Consequently, for the first time in 19 months of continuous increases, prices for B, 2b spruce sawlogs fell slightly. The Holzkurier’s latest price trend shows a range of €127 to €135/m³ for the majority of deals. This corresponds to a nationwide decrease of around €3/m³ compared to February. At a regional level, prices have fallen by up to €10/m³ from the peak.
In Styria, pine forests were particularly affected by snow breakage. With spring approaching and temperatures rising, this has recently put pine log prices under pressure.
Bavarian log wood down by €2/m³
In Bavaria, the Holzkurier also sees a slight decrease of €2/m³ compared to February, and regionally of even up to €5/m³ in the past two weeks. Roadside prices there now range from €130 to €136/m³. This is, in fact, the first decrease in Bavaria in 20 months. Meanwhile, prices in Baden-Württemberg remained constant at €133 to €137/m³.
For the majority of sawmills in Germany and Austria, the good supply situation should continue until at least June. The combination of high supply and ongoing uncertainties in the lumber market makes further reductions of log prices likely. Starting in the summer, log wood could be in short supply again if cutting continues unabated. Northern and central Germany could be faced with a shortage even earlier.
Beetle-damaged wood at a level similar to that of 2024/2025
The substantially smaller beetle population in forests is expected to cause a volume of damaged wood comparable to that recorded last year. This would mark the third consecutive year in Germany with approximately 20 million m³ of damaged wood. For comparison: At the peak of the beetle calamity, more than three times this volume was damaged.
Of Austria’s and Germany’s neighboring countries, the Czech Republic still has the highest prices. Sawmills operating at reduced capacity aim to return to the level of the fourth quarter of 2025 (-€10/m³). The State Forests, in the other hand, even under new management, reportedly expect prices to increase by €3 to €4/m³, according to unconfirmed reports.
Lumber prices remained unsatisfactory for sawmills in March. While log prices in southern Germany and Austria increased by 20% compared to March 2025, the Holzkurier price trend shows the following developments:
CE roof slats +6%, 17-mm machined sideboards Italy +9%, visible-quality lamellas for glulam +9%, US 2-by-4 lumber -10%.
Hopes for the US market, currently hardly viable
A comparison with last year shows how difficult the US market is at the moment: Back then, deliveries to the US were still economically viable – because log wood was 20% cheaper, the euro was 6% weaker, and lumber prices were 10% higher.
No major price jump is expected for lumber in April. Quarterly negotiations of major timber industry companies indicate stable prices for main grade lumber. Only a real recovery of the domestic markets in the DACH region and Italy after Easter could change this. In terms of prices, the US is the only overseas market showing positive signals. However, a viable price level for main grade 2-by-4 lumber is not yet in sight. So far this year, German shipments to the US (January: -46%) have been massively replaced by Swedish ones (+400%).
Scandinavians have been benefiting from falling log prices since August 2025. The storm in January has not had any impact so far, as the processing and removal of the damaged trees has not started yet. After the harsh winter, the ground in forests has thawed, making harvesting more difficult.
Stable solid structural timber, unstable glulam
While the solid structural timber price remained largely constant over the winter (± €2/m³), glulam was much more affected by the construction slump in winter (up to -€12/m³). Warehouse clearances, unadjusted production volumes, and disruptive offers for lamellas from Scandinavian competitors drove down prices.
In March, the situation changed insofar as there are now delivery times for glulam again. Across Europe, the price for visible-quality glulam is around €560 ± €10/m³.
Two glulam price increases, totaling +€50/m³, announced
An increase of €25/m³ – which was expected by many buyers and already factored into prices – was announced for April 1. However, this would only offset first-quarter cost increases for lumber. According to producers, this is not enough for profitable prices, though. A second increase is planned for early May. This would push the price above the €600/m³-mark. In addition, a distance-based diesel surcharge is now being added.
Due to the harsh winter, many CLT orders could not be delivered in the first quarter. Combined with a slight recovery in demand, this led to better capacity utilization in CLT production. A price increase of €25/m³ is planned for the start of the second quarter, and another one in the third quarter. “Timber construction in Germany will perform well this year,” is the assessment of CLT manufacturers, who also expect sales in Italy to be similar to 2025.
