Interviews for holzkurier.tv © holzkurier.com
Log wood: too little, supply too irregular
Almost all of the people we spoke to noticed that supply was a big challenge this year. German forest owners, who had been affected by the impact of damaged wood for years, harvested much smaller volumes of log wood in 2024 – mainly out of phytosanitary caution. And the forest owners also did not make up for reduced logging in the fourth quarter either.
Jörn Kimmich, Managing Director of ante-holz and Vice President of the German Timber Industry Council, fears that companies won’t be able to seize all market opportunities in 2025: “In the fourth quarter, the US market has recovered, and demand for lumber is increasing again. However, if logging volumes remain at the current level, the security of supply could be at risk starting in 2025. Suppliers must make the right decisions now, otherwise we might be faced with fluctuations in the supply chains.” These ups and downs pose difficulties for the timber industry which has provide markets with a constant supply. “We can’t just increase and reduce the number of shifts at will,” Kimmich commented.
Fluctuating supply in 2024
“Even with subdued demand for lumber, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ensure log supply,” Dr. Stephan Lang, President of the DeSH and CEO of the Rettenmeier Group, added. He also believes that “we cannot always keep staff on hand until there is sufficient log wood again.” “Supply was not that good and constant this year. There were definitely some dents,” Dr. Carsten Merforth, COO Mercer Timber and DeSH board member, said, agreeing with his colleague.
US likely to set the trend for 2025
After some tough discussions, the Holzkurier invited people to an after-work beer © DeSH
All softwood sawmillers are pleased about the upturn in the US market. From late July to late November, prices have risen to a level which is considered adequate for European exporters, i.e. to around US-$600/1000 bft or €370/m³ (delivered to the US east coast). “The US could once again be the one to fire the starting signal for an upturn,” Lang analyzed and added: “The US will without doubt be decisive for market developments in 2025.” What he meant by that is that the US often sets the trend for other overseas markets. When prices recover in the US, other markets usually follow suit.
For many, this year was a “wild repetition of 2023. If we want to turn things around in 2025, exports are the key to that,” Lang is convinced. “Building permits don’t indicate any improvement in the German construction industry in 2025,” Merforth agrees. “Export markets are valves for marketing lumber.” US demand is too high for European goods to oversaturate the market. “In 2025, outlook is better for any market but the German one,” DeSH Vice President Lutz Schmelter said, who had little hope for the coming year.
Playing it safe in 2025 as well
“It is a privilege that we were able to keep our employees fully employed this year. We will keep playing it safe in 2025, too. A slight increase is possible, but there won’t be any miracles,” Claudia Hirschbach, owner and Managing Director of Hirschbach GmbH, Sulzbach, said, looking back on 2024 and ahead to 2025.
In 2025, elections will be held in Germany. Regardless of which party governs Germany, a change of government could bring a motivating upswing. “An upturn is possible starting in the second half of 2025. We will work to make sure that the new government focuses on construction.” DeSH Managing Director Julia Möbus emphasized.
We have a housing solution, but are not permitted yet!
“We have the solutions for efficient housing construction: modular construction in wood,” Larissa Kuntz said. “This would also be a great solution for decarbonizing the economy. However, things are not progressing quickly yet because modular construction companies often lack local building permits.” Since most suppliers have now adjusted to lower demand, 2025 will be somewhat better than this year.
When it comes to hardwood, the supply situation is slightly more relaxed than that of softwood. Standard beech wood products in particular are available. There is too much low-quality log wood which is difficult to sell once processed into lumber. At the same time, easily marketable qualities are in short supply, as Patrik Rodlberger, Managing Director of Pollmeier Furnierwerkstoffe and DeSH hardwood spokesman, analyzed.
“As for oak, top quality log wood is either very expensive and can only be obtained at auctions or it is threatened by the oak pinhole borer,” Steffen Rathke of Holzwerke Keck added.
