Comparisons with the great previous years show how volatile the softwood lumber business is, especially in North America. In 2020, Canfor made a profit of €395 million and exceeded the €1-billion mark in 2021. And even in 2022, a profit of nearly €600 million was reported (each adjusted net income/loss; CAD-EUR exchange rate as of March 7, 2024).
Looking back, the group was in the deep red in the fourth quarter of 2023 in particular. As in 2022, Canfor reported an adjusted net loss of CAD 127 million (€86 million) last year as well. The group explains this trend with the “sustained pressure on global lumber market conditions and pricing through most of the fourth quarter”.
Canfor expects the situation on the global softwood lumber market to remain challenging in 2024 due to high interest rates. However, lower production output should bring inventories back to normal levels. “Despite the near-term challenges, underlying global lumber market fundamentals remain solid in the longer term, with demographic trends supporting the need for additional new home construction activity against the backdrop of an aging housing stock and low inventories of new homes available.”
Canfor expects a modest improvement on the Chinese and Japanese markets this year. A certain upward trend is also predicted for Europe, given the bottlenecks in the supply of lumber in this region, which are partly linked to the reduced availability of log wood and rising log prices.
