The majority of sawmills, to be precise 56%, reported a satisfactory business situation, while 33% rated the fourth quarter as poor. Thus, assessments are slightly more negative than they were in the previous quarter and in the same period in 2024. As for the first quarter of 2026, 54% of survey participants expect a satisfactory, 36% a negative, and 10% a positive development of their business situation. So, sawmills have a slightly more optimistic outlook.
Prices expected to rise
The majority of sawmills expect rising purchase and sales prices. Specifically, 49% predict further increases in log prices and 65% expect rising lumber prices. Only 11% of sawmills think that log prices will fall, and 3% expect falling lumber prices (see charts below).
In 2025, the sawmill industry’s willingness to invest was extremely low for the third year in a row and it is not expected to recover quickly. In fact, none of the survey participants expect the willingness to invest to improve in the first half of 2026.
© Holzkurier
Precarious log supply
Answers to the question of what the biggest challenges are that sawmills are currently faced with fall into several clear categories. Log wood is the dominant issue: Almost all companies report very high log prices coupled with a limited availability of the raw material. Log prices are rising at a steeper rate than lumber prices, which results in massive pressure on margins. Price increases are often impossible to implement in the market, or they can only be passed on to buyers with delay. Furthermore, some sawmills think that forestry company are holding back on harvesting wood or that they are unreliable when it comes to delivering log wood, which further reduces supply security. In 2026, 19% of the surveyed sawmills plan to reduce log cutting compared to this year.
Another key issue is weak demand and the sales situation. Some companies are responding to this by adjusting production, seeking new customer segments, or increasing their exports – often to countries outside of Europe.
Significant cost and structural stress represent the third major challenge. In addition to raw material costs, high energy, labor, insurance and financing costs are a burden for sawmills. At the same time, bureaucracy, regulatory requirements and inadequate digital infrastructure are cited as significant competitive disadvantages.
Another major issue is the shortage of skilled workers. A lack of qualified personnel in production and administration limits sawmills’ performance. Countermeasures reported by survey participants include automation, training and creating the most attractive jobs possible.
Overall, the companies describe a structurally strained situation with high uncertainty. While some companies are focusing on specialization, efficiency improvements and new markets, others see their economic viability increasingly called into question.
You can find all the results of the economic survey for the sawmill industry in the Datacube.
