Following decreasing volumes of damaged wood and a lack of beetle-damaged wood, the transition to regular harvesting of fresh log wood was delayed. “We should have started harvesting fresh log wood earlier,” Jörn Kimmich, managing director of ante-holz, emphasized. The result is said to be a “dramatic undersupply” of many sawmills, even though the National Forest Inventory shows stable stock levels. Bernhard Breitsameter, President of the Bavarian Forest Owners’ Association, put it even more bluntly: “Especially in southern Germany, we have extremely high timber stocks in privately owned forests, mostly softwood. If we want to return to a normal level starting from timber stocks of around 500 m³ per hectare without calamities, we would have to double logging volumes over the next 20 years.” Breitsameter gave the waiting for beetle-damaged wood and what he referred to as “gambling mentality” of some market participants as reasons for the currently low harvest volumes.
If we want to return to a normal level starting from timber stocks of around 500 m³ per hectare without calamities, we would have to double logging volumes in Bavaria over the next 20 years.
We are talking about a log supply tourism within Germany that is unprecedented.
Dr. Carsten Merforth, COO of Mercer, reported production curtailments, especially in the second half of the year, as his company, too, struggled to secure its log supply. He anticipates a slight easing of the situation only in the first quarter of 2026, and expects to end the year with reduced volumes.
Regional bottlenecks are leading to sourcing areas being extended while negatively impacting companies in favored areas like the Black Forest. “We are experiencing a log supply tourism within Germany that is unprecedented. Even here in the Black Forest, where the sawmills are located right in the middle of the forest, supply is increasingly becoming an issue,” Manuel Echtle, managing director of Sägewerk Echtle, commented.
For the first time ever, we started cutting pine, too, this year, and we are very glad that we took this step.
Pine increasingly important
Schwaiger Holzindustrie is also faced with a strained supply situation. As managing director Katrin Schwaiger explained: “As far back as I can remember, we were exclusively a spruce sawmill. For the first time ever, we started cutting pine, too, this year, and we are very glad that we took this step.” Merforth reported that his production site in Thuringia is also relying more heavily on pine to compensate for the shortage of spruce log wood. Kimmich emphasized that ante-holz took to processing softwood in general: “If we limited ourselves to spruce, the situation would be much more difficult.”
Sales stable but subdued in 2025
Despite a weak construction market, sales remained generally robust in 2025. In Germany, multi-story and public construction provided the strongest impetus. “Sales were better than we had expected,” Echtle said. Timber construction systems using cross-laminated timber as well as modular construction showed the best performance.
In contrast, demand remained weak in the single-family and two-family home segments. Exports to North America were under even bigger pressure, burdened by price volatility, unpredictable tariff policies, and unfavorable currency exchange rates. Nevertheless, Kimmich emphasized the importance of the US market: “We need foreign markets as sales channels.” With Asia being no longer a viable option, North America is all the more crucial in securing employment.
At ante-holz, we took to processing softwood in general. If we limited ourselves to spruce, the situation would be much more dramatic.
Slight recovery, but no trend reversal
Most interviewees expect a slight stabilization in 2026, but no real upswing. Building permits are showing some positive signs, but this is not yet sufficient for substantial increases in volume.
In principle, the German sawmill industry believes it is capable of responding to growing demand – provided that the supply situation improves. The industry is therefore calling for closer coordination with forest owners. A persistently tight supply of raw materials would pose an existential threat to parts of the industry.
