Market participants give different assessments of the supply situation. Some expect increased harvesting activity in the coming weeks, while others anticipate a massive shortage until the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Changed purchasing areas
Companies from the Sauerland region continue to expand their purchasing activities to Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. Upper Austrian sawmills have also begun purchasing log wood in southwest Bavaria. Further examples of changed purchasing activities given by market participants include “trains loaded with logs leaving the Black Forest” and “deliveries from Thuringia to the Czech Republic”.
Depending on the supply situation, sawmills are adjusting their cutting volumes. Production curtailments are being reported from all regions of Germany and Austria. Measures include everything from reductions in the number of shifts and not working on Fridays to short-time work. Many companies are currently operating in only one shift until Christmas. Furthermore, it is expected that the shutdowns over the New Year will last longer than usual.
At the moment, the log supply of Austrian sawmills is sufficient for ongoing operations. However, with winter coming, log inventories are considered as being too low in many sawmills.
What’s fatal for sawmills is that demand would call for cutting at a normal level, but insufficient supply prevents this.
Price level and new contracts
In October, spruce prices in Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, and Austria ranged predominantly from €120 to €126/m³. In large private forests, €130/m³ are no longer uncommon. For Bavaria, the Holzkurier identified a price range of €122 to €126/m³ for spruce B, 2b (with a small share of C-grade logs). A new contract of a Bavarian timber industry company, which is valid until the end of January 2026, stipulates a price that is around €3/m³ higher, without discounts. Due to its longer term, this contract could contribute to a certain degree of price stability.
As for spruce logs in Austrian forests owned by farmers, the price level is between €120 and €125/m³. In northern Austria, contracts below €120/m³ were still concluded in September. In October, forestry companies achieved prices of €130 to €135/m³.
Growing demand for pine
The insufficient supply of spruce logs is driving demand for pine log wood in Austria and Germany. Sawmills in northern and eastern Austria are significantly expanding their purchasing areas. Some activity has already been reported in Carinthia. In Styria, marketing organizations of privately owned forests are reporting prices of up to €92/m³ ex forest road for the fourth quarter.
Log prices have basically risen by €20/m³ since July. This would require an unrealistic increase of €50/m³ for lumber.
In Carinthia, prices are at €90/m³ in forests owned by farmers. In Upper and Lower Austria, price increases to respective ranges of €85 to €93/m³ and €83 to €90/m³ are becoming evident. These figures refer to the prices paid to forest owners.
The trend towards pine log wood is also gaining importance for glued timber producers. While an approval for use in CLT is not imminent, the use of pine in solid structural timber will likely increase. However, the often crooked shape of the logs limits their use for wider product ranges.
International parallels
Similar developments can be observed when it comes to redwood in Scandinavia and Southern Yellow Pine in the southern United States. There, US tariffs on imports of Canadian SPF lumber could limit availability. SYP is currently considered a cheap alternative.
We can raise lumber prices on the domestic market, but on the global market, nobody cares about our problems.
