European forests in crisis mode

Drought, fires and windthrow, coupled with devastating bark beetle infestation, paint an alarming picture. Huge areas of dead forests in Thuringia, the Czech Republic and Upper Carinthia are a visible sign of the effects of climate change in Central Europe.

The impact on the local forestry sector and timber industry is serious. Tree species which have played a central role for decades, such as spruce, beech and pine, are coming under increasing pressure or are disappearing completely from many regions where they used to dominate the landscape just a few decades ago.

What does this mean for the wood processing industry and what will our forests look like in the future? An international team of experts from the organization Teaming up 4 Forests, which was recently established by the IUFRO and Mondi, addressed these questions and published the first results and recommendations for action for businesses, the forestry sector and politics in a synthesis report which was recently presented to the public in Vienna.

Will spruce trees disappear from Central Europe?

According to Dr. Florian Kraxner, forestry and climate expert at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and co-author of the study, spruce trees will not disappear completely. “But they will certainly no longer exist to an extent that we might be hoping for.”

The IUFRO study found that the suitable habitat for spruce trees in Central Europe will shrink by up to 50% until the end of the century. The forestry sector and timber industry are therefore forced to find solutions and suitable and climate-resistant alternative species – a difficult task given the fact that not only spruce but also beech and pine are struggling with climate change.

Changing the composition of forests is inevitable

Given the current developments, achieving the goal established in the Paris Agreement, i.e. to limit global warming to a maximum of +2°C, seems increasingly difficult – with dramatic consequences for European forests. The study shows that smaller amounts of rainfall in the future could further increase the risk of forest fires. Different scenarios predict a potential doubling of the areas destroyed by forest fires by the end of the century.

“We must take action as soon as possible in order to preserve the valuable raw material wood and ensure that it remains available in the future, too. This also means saying goodbye to the forests as we have known them up until today,” the IIASA expert says.

Increase in biomass in the North

“In a few regions of Europe, such as in Scandinavia, where temperatures have been the limiting factor in the past, the warming of the climate actually leads to an increase in biomass. At the same time, though, the substantial increase in harmful events cancels out any positive effect,” Kraxner says, putting developments into perspective.

At least over the medium term, the outlook is more positive for Scandinavia than for Central Europe, which also explains the increasing involvement of Austrian and German timber groups in the European North. However, Scandinavia alone will not be able to satisfy the ever-growing demand for wood and wood products and, as Kraxner explains, “Finnish and Swedish forests, too, are increasingly struggling with drought conditions and the onset of bark beetle infestation”.

However, the situation in Scandinavia cannot be compared to the one in Central Europe. In the (negative) record year of 2019, Germany harvested a total of over 70 million m³ of log wood, nearly all of which was damaged wood. Last year, almost 35 million m³ were reported. And even though volumes are slowly “normalizing” again, the various calamities have left huge clearings behind which need to be reforested – with a climate-resistant species, of course. “Usually, a new spruce tree grows back under every old one. The problem is that another damaging event will most likely precede the planned use of that new tree,” Kraxner analyzes.

We have to say goodbye to taboos

As a result of the high percentage of damaged wood, big volumes of spruce logs inevitably come onto the market at short notice. According to a report on the condition of forests in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), only around one quarter of the existing trees in the western federal state of Germany are still healthy. The drought-like conditions and bark beetle infestation are taking a massive toll on the stands, which primarily consist of beech and spruce. On the one hand, the industry has to deal with these volumes of damaged wood. At the same time, though, preparations should be made for what comes after that.

“It is a difficult balancing act. We urgently need to think about how we can use other tree species as raw material. A lot still needs to be done in terms of technology as well. “At the moment, too much is happening behind a curtain,” the study author appeals.

Which tree species will the industry have to be prepared for in the future? Douglas firs, which have been touted as an alternative for a while, are turning out to be much less resistant than originally hoped. At the same time, invasive species, such as black locust, are proving their adaptability in a warming Central Europe. Oak trees, too, will likely find a significantly bigger suitable habitat in the coming years. “Doing nothing would be the worst thing to do. Changing the composition of forests to include more resilient tree species only happens through human intervention. And when doing that, we shouldn’t be afraid to use non-native species,” Kraxner explains and also issues a warning, in view of the generational thinking in forestry: “In any case, we must realize that we no longer have time to make mistakes.”

Further promoting a cascading use

Dr. Metodi Sotirov, Professor of Forest and Environmental Policy at the University of Freiburg, is certain: “In the future, every tree species will be needed. Biodiversity is key when it comes to spreading the risk as much as possible. One question will remain, though: How much wood will be available for the individual industrial sectors in the future?” With this question, Sotirov addresses the growing conflict between the use of wood as material and for energy generation.

For Kraxner, strongly promoting the cascading use of wood is part of the solution. “Forest owners cannot increase their yield per hectare any further. However, since wood is a building material, it must be possible to use it more often than just once. Wood must only be burned at the very end of its life cycle.”

Conflicting interests in forest management

More than half of Europe’s forests are privately owned. “Many of the owners have different interests. It is important to find a balance between intensive and extensive forest management. National forestry policies need to be harmonized urgently in order to achieve common goals. In doing so, it is crucial for politics to proactively approach forest owners with different adapted strategies in order to create incentives for sustainable forest management and to make a positive contribution to the supply of wood,” the forestry and politics expert Sotirov explains.

Similar to climate change, forests know neither ownership structures nor national borders. “Transnational and cross-sector collaboration will be crucial to successfully master current and future uncertainties and changes,” the international study concludes.